Quantum: flu expert fears H5N1 nightmare

A QUANTUM OF SCIENCE

What happens when the lethal but less-infective H5N1 strain of influenza mingles with the relatively benign but more-infective H1N1?

Dr. Yi Guan of Hong Kong Kong University is one of the leading flu experts in the world. His claim to fame was the isolation of the SARS virus in wild civets in 2003; his recommendation to eliminate the population of captive civets may have prevented a re-emergence of SARS since then. Now he has some strong criticisms of the World Health Organization's handling of H1N1, and worries about the potential for a sharing of lethal H5N1 genes with H1N1, which has proven itself far better at spreading itself around than H5N1.

The difference between the two strains' ability to infect may be in the gene encoding hemagglutinin, the protein that helps the virus get into cells and infect them. Recently published data shows that the genetic sequence for the hemagglutinin (HA) gene is only 9.7% similar between H5N1 and H1N1, by far the largest difference between their genetic codes. Because influenza is capable of rapid reassortment - the shuffling of genes like decks of cards - it may only be a matter of time before the HA gene from H1N1 is adopted by H5N1. That could have profoundly dire effects if experts like Dr. Guan are to be believed. So far the only ray of hope that nightmare scenario will not happen is the H1N1 seems restricted to North America, while H5N1 is only found in Asia. Critics of the WHO like Dr. Guan seem to be quite justified in calling for increased attention to transcontinental spread of H1N1 and more aggressive use of TamiFlu and other treatments to curb the spread of H1N1 into Asia.

More information:
http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/05/exclusive-meet.html

© A Quantum of Science / Peter Smalley (2009)
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